Recency Bias is a term psychologists use to describe the tendency to automatically overvalue recent examples when informing our opinions. This occurs at a subconscious level, such that you may not even be aware that your thoughts are biased by recent circumstances. The problem with recency bias is that this can lead to inaccurate thoughts.
Recency bias isn’t specific to travel, though here we’ll explore some ways in which this kind of mental “shortcut” can lead to some undesired results. Are there ways to use recency bias to your advantage? Let’s find out.
Examples of Recency Bias
Imagine that you flip a coin a hundred times and it lands on “heads” every single time. What do you think the chances are that the next flip will also be heads? Probably pretty high, since all the “recent” examples of coin flips for you have been heads.
In reality, the chance of getting a “heads” remains the same at 50%. You simply think that the chances of flipping a certain way is higher due to the influence of those recent experiences.
The same can be true of your travels. If you’ve deemed that your past trip was a disaster and terribly unenjoyable, that thought can potentially influence your feelings about your next trip.
You may unnecessarily avoid traveling again, or at least delay it longer than you otherwise would have. This is based on the over-estimation that you will encounter similar problems on your next trip.
“Does your previous experience determine the outcome of your future experiences?”
-PsychologyofTravel.com
Is this really true, though? Does your previous experience determine the outcome of your future experiences? Sometimes, it certainly feels this way. That’s why gamblers sometimes lose big when they bet following their recent string of success…those past winnings don’t change the odds of your next gamble.
In a similar way, there may be times when your travel-related Recency Bias may actually be overly favorable. In other words, you’ve had a string of incredible stress-free trips so you start to expect that your next trip will automatically be incredible as well.
Travel Bias and You
Is there a way to use Recency Bias to your advantage? Well, the first step is simply be aware that it exists. Consider how you’re viewing your next upcoming trip.
- What influence does your prior recent travel experience have on how you think and feel about the upcoming trip?
- How accurate is that perception?
- Is there any other way to think about it from a more balanced perspective?
- What would a friend tell if you they heard you describe it that way?
Once you’re aware of your potential sources of bias, it will free you to move forward with a more open mind to experience the realities of the moment. Remember that just because something feels like it’s true, does not actually make it true. Just because you had negative memories of your last trip, doesn’t mean you’re going to re-experience the same thing on your next trip.
Of note, recency bias is not the only way in which our minds take shortcuts. There are actually quite a large number of ways that our minds selectively filter information in a way that can lead to inaccurate conclusions.
There’s an excellent book by Daniel Kahneman called Thinking, Fast and Slow that provides a great overview of other ways our mental “shortcuts” can influence our decision-making. Check it out if you’re interested in more examples of cognitive bias that we all experience.
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Happy Travels,
Dr. L
Founder, PsychologyOfTravel.com
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